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“The economy is based on trust,” said Dean Johnson, associate professor of finance at Michigan Technological University in Houghton, Michigan.

In situations like the recent housing bubble, or even the stock market collapse of 1929, where markets were driven by debt and fueled by the false expectation that values can only increase, trust can be a very fragile thing.

“One little blip and everything started to unwind,” Johnson said. “The particulars are different, but the basics are familiar.”

Trust, however, seems to be coming back, according to Johnson. If people are cautious and not spending money, the government and financial industry must take action to encourage capital liquidity. During the first half of 2009, this is exactly what they have been doing. And if the effects have not been as immediate as some would like and others needed, at least their efforts are beginning to take effect.

Why does Johnson believe trust is returning? He points to the Volatility Index, or VIX, which measures investors’ expectations of how volatile the stock markets will be. The VIX reached all-time highs in 2008.

“People think of it as the fear gauge,” Johson explained. “it’s encouraging that the VIX, though still high be historical standards, is down about 60 percent from what it was at its peak in November.”

Other, more recent, signs that trust is being rebuilt in the American housing/real estate markets and the financial industry include:

• USA Today reports that while the construction market remains weak the housing market may be improving slightly. Residential construction reportedly dropped to the lowest level since December 1995. Pending homes sales increased slightly in May, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
• Proposed legislation to create a Consumer Financial Protection Agency is making progress at the federal level, according to the Washington Post. The Post reports that the Treasury Department’s proposal for a new federal agency to consolidate the plethora of state and federal regulators responsible for overseeing the lending industry arrived on Capitol Hill on Tuesday.
• At the end of June, Fannie Mae, which is still under the conservatorship of the federal government, reported its mortgage portfolio grew at a compound annual rate of more than 35 percent in May. A report from Dow Jones appearing in the Wall Street Journal indicates a large jump in the issuing of mortgage-backed securities offset continued rises in single-family and multi-family mortgage delinquencies.

Notes of caution, however, are also being heard. Yale University economist and co-founder of the S&P/Case-Schiller home-price index, Robert Schiller told Bloomberg: “At this point, people are thinking the fall is over. The market is predicting the declines are over.” At the same time he is “not optimistic that we’re going to see any sharp rebound.”

Johnson agrees with Schiller.

“It’s still a risky market,” Johnson stresses. “This is the first time in history that you’ve been better off if you’d put your money under a mattress 10 years ago. But hopefully, this indicates that the financial markets are returning to normal.”

Of course this doesn’t mean the housing market or the financial industry will be returning to the halcyon days of pre-mortgage crisis days anytime soon. It doesn’t matter how badly investors, bankers, consumers, lenders, the government or the world at large want it.

“There’s no easy fix,” Johnson concluded. “We have to take our medicine. It took 20 years to create the over-leverage and it will take time to undo that.”

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Today is the day the recovery starts, at least according to those peering into the rosiest-colored crystal balls. The Wall Street Journal dug up these great examples:

Most forecasters seem to expect growth to be weak for a few quarters, but then rebound back to trend in the second half of 2008… –Lehman Brothers research note, Dec. 12, 2007

What is shaping up as the deepest and longest recession since the 1930s will end in the second half of 2009. –Wells Fargo press release, Dec. 19, 2008

And what news did we wake to on this glorious July 1?

First, mortgage application dropped 30% last week. The report from the Mortgage Bankers Association says this is a the lowest the rate has been at in seven months. Biggest reasons for this are people’s concerns about their jobs and mortgage rates. Currently the 30-year fixed is averaging 5.34%.

Second, delinquency rates for the LEAST RISKY MORTGAGES more that doubled in the first quarter compared to the same period in ‘08.

Prime mortgages 60 days or more past due climbed to 2.9 percent of such loans through March 31 from 1.1 percent at the same point in 2008, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision said today in a report. First-time foreclosure filings on the loans rose 22 percent from the fourth quarter, the report said.                                                                

(Hat tip to Implode/Explode)

These are just the latest evidence of the new wave of foreclosures. A month ago Mark Hanson of the Field Check Group wrote that the price-collapse we have been seeing in low- to mid-priced homes is now spreading to the mid- to high-priced sectors.

Mid-to-high end [Notice of Disclosure] and foreclosure counts stand between 35% and 40% of total counts but account for only about 20% of total sales. This means that foreclosure-related pipeline supply is 100% greater than demand in this segment. This is a major supply/demand imbalance that will bring serious trouble to this market over the near-term. Especially considering that this particular foreclosure related supply only makes up approx 10% of total mid-to-high end supply with Ma and Pay Organic homeowner once again making up the rest.

(Hat tip to the Financial Armageddon blog.)

Given Mr. Hanson’s impressive track record I am inclined to believe his predictions and wonder why Lehman Bros., Wells Fargo, et al., can’t do as well. Probably has something to do with his lack of a vested interest.

So the much vaunted recovery continues to recede farther into the distance. Surprise, surprise, surprise.

Constantine von Hoffman is a veteran business journalist and social media consultant. He write the blog CollateralDamage, a satirical look at marketing and business.

 

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“Local reports indicate that homelessness is on the rise and this report [Foreclosure to Homelessness] gives us insight into the role that foreclosures may be having on that increase,” said Nan Roman, president of the National Alliance to End Homelessness.

The Foreclosure to Homelessness: The Forgotten Victims of the Foreclosure Crisis report released last week provides insight into how foreclosures have affected homeless populations around the country. Based on surveys completed by 178 organizations across the U.S. that provide services to individuals and families experiencing  homelessness it was determined that the nation’s homeless population has been directly impacted by foreclosure and that the is likely to increase along with the number of foreclosures.  Nearly 80 percent of the respondents reported that at least some of their clients became homeless due to foreclosure. The leading self-reported reasons for homelessness, however, remain financial obstacles like job loss, addiction and evictions, according to additional information gathered by the Alliance to End Homelessness.

“The results of this survey make clear that foreclosures are a major factor in the increase of homelessness in the United States,” National Low Income Housing Coalition (NLIHC) President Shelia Crowley said.

Conducted earlier this year between January 15 and February 21, the data collected by the survey reflects the previous 12-month period. Other key findings include:

• Housing providers (including emergency, transitional and permanent housing) estimated that 5 percent of their clients experienced homelessness as a result of foreclosure compared to 10 percent of all respondents.

• 34 percent of responding organizations indicated none of their clients were homeless as a result of foreclosure however 14 percent of those surveyed estimated that most of their clients were homeless due to foreclosure.

• Those experiencing homelessness due to foreclosure tended to be renters – not owners.

• Most of those facing homelessness because of foreclosure, whether renters or owners, did not seek legal advice in foreclosure proceedings.

• The most common living situations among those made homeless by foreclosure included staying with family or friends and emergency shelters.

“We’re grateful that since the time this data was collected, federal actions have provided communities with resources to prevent and end homelessness, in the form of stimulus dollars and renter protections.”

The 40-page report was released by the Alliance along with the National Coalition for Homelessness, the National Health Care for the Homeless Council (NHCHC), the National Association for the Education of Homeless Children and Youth (NAEHC), the National Law Center on Homelessness and Poverty (NLCHP), the National Low Income Housing Coalition (NLIHC) and the National Policy and Advocacy Council on Homelessness (NPACH).

Another study, Renters in Crisis by Shelia Crowley and Danilo Pelletiere of the National Low Income Housing Coalition and Maria Foscarinis of the National Law Center on Homelessness & Poverty, that is also cited in the Foreclosure to Homelessness report, revealed the following facts regarding renters and foreclosures:

• In 2008, one of every five properties in foreclosure were rental properties. Many had multiple units.

• An estimated 40 percent of families facing eviction due to foreclosure are renters.

• Seven million households living on very low incomes (31 to 50 percent of the Area Median Income) are at risk of foreclosure.

Renters received important new federal protections when President Obama signed the Helping Families Keep Their Homes Act in May 2009. The Act states that tenants must be given at least 90 days notice to vacate once a property has been foreclosed on and have the right to occupy the premises until the end of any term entered into under a bona fide lease agreement made prior to the notice of foreclosure is given unless the property will become the owner’s primary residence. Further, the Act protects renters receiving Section 8 assistance by preventing eviction during the term of their lease just so the new owner can sell the property. These and other provisions, while helpful, will not completely solve the problems renters and tenants face during foreclosure.

To assist tenants facing foreclosure, NLIHC has teamed up with the National Housing Law Project (NHLP) to create a toolkit for renters facing eviction due to foreclosure. The toolkit, which is available on the NLIHC website, includes a copy of the law, a one page explanation of its provisions, a question and answer document for tenants, sample letters to send to landlords, judges and public housing agencies and a webinar explaining the new law.

“Under the law, these blameless victims of the foreclosure crisis are now protected,” said Crowley. “The toolkit provides tenants and their advocates with the information necessary to protect families from being evicted unlawfully.”

Some activists and advocates for the homeless have promoted the idea of moving homeless families and individuals into empty properties that are in foreclosure. In April 2009, Real Estate Pro Articles detailed some of the efforts to allow homeless persons to occupy vacant homes occurring around the country.  The New York Times also explored this issue back in February 2009. Since April, however, stories about this alternative have largely vanished from media and the blogoshpere although the release of this new report may revitalize interest.

Related posts:

1. Squatters and Foreclosure: Who Lives Here?
2. Foreclosures Kick Out Renters Too
3. Temporary hold placed on foreclosures

Related posts:

1. Squatters and Foreclosure: Who Lives Here?
2. Foreclosures Kick Out Renters Too
3. Temporary hold placed on foreclosures