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Recovery? Mortgage apps down, prime delinquencies up

July 1st, 2009 Comments off


Today is the day the recovery starts, at least according to those peering into the rosiest-colored crystal balls. The Wall Street Journal dug up these great examples:

Most forecasters seem to expect growth to be weak for a few quarters, but then rebound back to trend in the second half of 2008… –Lehman Brothers research note, Dec. 12, 2007

What is shaping up as the deepest and longest recession since the 1930s will end in the second half of 2009. –Wells Fargo press release, Dec. 19, 2008

And what news did we wake to on this glorious July 1?

First, mortgage application dropped 30% last week. The report from the Mortgage Bankers Association says this is a the lowest the rate has been at in seven months. Biggest reasons for this are people’s concerns about their jobs and mortgage rates. Currently the 30-year fixed is averaging 5.34%.

Second, delinquency rates for the LEAST RISKY MORTGAGES more that doubled in the first quarter compared to the same period in ‘08.

Prime mortgages 60 days or more past due climbed to 2.9 percent of such loans through March 31 from 1.1 percent at the same point in 2008, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision said today in a report. First-time foreclosure filings on the loans rose 22 percent from the fourth quarter, the report said.                                                                

(Hat tip to Implode/Explode)

These are just the latest evidence of the new wave of foreclosures. A month ago Mark Hanson of the Field Check Group wrote that the price-collapse we have been seeing in low- to mid-priced homes is now spreading to the mid- to high-priced sectors.

Mid-to-high end [Notice of Disclosure] and foreclosure counts stand between 35% and 40% of total counts but account for only about 20% of total sales. This means that foreclosure-related pipeline supply is 100% greater than demand in this segment. This is a major supply/demand imbalance that will bring serious trouble to this market over the near-term. Especially considering that this particular foreclosure related supply only makes up approx 10% of total mid-to-high end supply with Ma and Pay Organic homeowner once again making up the rest.

(Hat tip to the Financial Armageddon blog.)

Given Mr. Hanson’s impressive track record I am inclined to believe his predictions and wonder why Lehman Bros., Wells Fargo, et al., can’t do as well. Probably has something to do with his lack of a vested interest.

So the much vaunted recovery continues to recede farther into the distance. Surprise, surprise, surprise.

Constantine von Hoffman is a veteran business journalist and social media consultant. He write the blog CollateralDamage, a satirical look at marketing and business.

 

Related posts:

  1. Long-term unemployment woes increasing rate prime mortgage foreclosures
  2. Surprise, Surprise Alt-A and Subprime Delinquencies are…UP
  3. Bernanke Cautiously Optimistic For Recovery

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  2. Surprise, Surprise Alt-A and Subprime Delinquencies are…UP
  3. Bernanke Cautiously Optimistic For Recovery

New Report Links Foreclosures and Homelessness

June 30th, 2009 Comments off

“Local reports indicate that homelessness is on the rise and this report [Foreclosure to Homelessness] gives us insight into the role that foreclosures may be having on that increase,” said Nan Roman, president of the National Alliance to End Homelessness.

The Foreclosure to Homelessness: The Forgotten Victims of the Foreclosure Crisis report released last week provides insight into how foreclosures have affected homeless populations around the country. Based on surveys completed by 178 organizations across the U.S. that provide services to individuals and families experiencing  homelessness it was determined that the nation’s homeless population has been directly impacted by foreclosure and that the is likely to increase along with the number of foreclosures.  Nearly 80 percent of the respondents reported that at least some of their clients became homeless due to foreclosure. The leading self-reported reasons for homelessness, however, remain financial obstacles like job loss, addiction and evictions, according to additional information gathered by the Alliance to End Homelessness.

“The results of this survey make clear that foreclosures are a major factor in the increase of homelessness in the United States,” National Low Income Housing Coalition (NLIHC) President Shelia Crowley said.

Conducted earlier this year between January 15 and February 21, the data collected by the survey reflects the previous 12-month period. Other key findings include:

  • Housing providers (including emergency, transitional and permanent housing) estimated that 5 percent of their clients experienced homelessness as a result of foreclosure compared to 10 percent of all respondents.
  • 34 percent of responding organizations indicated none of their clients were homeless as a result of foreclosure however 14 percent of those surveyed estimated that most of their clients were homeless due to foreclosure.
  • Those experiencing homelessness due to foreclosure tended to be renters – not owners.
  • Most of those facing homelessness because of foreclosure, whether renters or owners, did not seek legal advice in foreclosure proceedings.
  • The most common living situations among those made homeless by foreclosure included staying with family or friends and emergency shelters.

“We’re grateful that since the time this data was collected, federal actions have provided communities with resources to prevent and end homelessness, in the form of stimulus dollars and renter protections.”

The 40-page report was released by the Alliance along with the National Coalition for Homelessness, the National Health Care for the Homeless Council (NHCHC), the National Association for the Education of Homeless Children and Youth (NAEHC), the National Law Center on Homelessness and Poverty (NLCHP), the National Low Income Housing Coalition (NLIHC) and the National Policy and Advocacy Council on Homelessness (NPACH).

Another study, Renters in Crisis by Shelia Crowley and Danilo Pelletiere of the National Low Income Housing Coalition and Maria Foscarinis of the National Law Center on Homelessness & Poverty, that is also cited in the Foreclosure to Homelessness report, revealed the following facts regarding renters and foreclosures:

  • In 2008, one of every five properties in foreclosure were rental properties. Many had multiple units.
  • An estimated 40 percent of families facing eviction due to foreclosure are renters.
  • Seven million households living on very low incomes (31 to 50 percent of the Area Median Income) are at risk of foreclosure.

Renters received important new federal protections when President Obama signed the Helping Families Keep Their Homes Act in May 2009. The Act states that tenants must be given at least 90 days notice to vacate once a property has been foreclosed on and have the right to occupy the premises until the end of any term entered into under a bona fide lease agreement made prior to the notice of foreclosure is given unless the property will become the owner’s primary residence. Further, the Act protects renters receiving Section 8 assistance by preventing eviction during the term of their lease just so the new owner can sell the property. These and other provisions, while helpful, will not completely solve the problems renters and tenants face during foreclosure.

To assist tenants facing foreclosure, NLIHC has teamed up with the National Housing Law Project (NHLP) to create a toolkit for renters facing eviction due to foreclosure. The toolkit, which is available on the NLIHC website, includes a copy of the law, a one page explanation of its provisions, a question and answer document for tenants, sample letters to send to landlords, judges and public housing agencies and a webinar explaining the new law.

“Under the law, these blameless victims of the foreclosure crisis are now protected,” said Crowley. “The toolkit provides tenants and their advocates with the information necessary to protect families from being evicted unlawfully.”

Some activists and advocates for the homeless have promoted the idea of moving homeless families and individuals into empty properties that are in foreclosure. In April 2009, Real Estate Pro Articles detailed some of the efforts to allow homeless persons to occupy vacant homes occurring around the country.  The New York Times also explored this issue back in February 2009. Since April, however, stories about this alternative have largely vanished from media and the blogoshpere although the release of this new report may revitalize interest.

Related posts:

  1. Squatters and Foreclosure: Who Lives Here?
  2. Foreclosures Kick Out Renters Too
  3. Temporary hold placed on foreclosures

Related posts:
  1. Squatters and Foreclosure: Who Lives Here?
  2. Foreclosures Kick Out Renters Too
  3. Temporary hold placed on foreclosures


Why is Citigroup still in business?

June 26th, 2009 Comments off

It’s been quite a week for Citi.

To be fair to Citi, they are taking (well-deserved) crap for the entire industry on the salary issue. BofA, Morgan Stanley, UBS and others are also trying to dodge the bad PR when huge bonuses are awarded following huge losses. So now instead of bonuses for bad performance execs will just get a huge salary for bad performance. It’s all about retention – or so Citi would like us to believe. Quote from the NYT: “Citigroup executives are so eager to keep employees from fleeing, that in some cases, they are offering them guaranteed pay contracts.” Well, given that those contracts are being paid for with $45 billion of US taxpayer debt who can blame them. Citi is once again free to play with someone else’s money and are being just as responsible as they were the last time. BTW, the idea that these raises are going to the rank-and-file is absolute hogwash. As Alphaville notes, “the biggest increases will go to investment bankers and traders.”

The discovery came in Citi’s correspondent division, which buys loans from banks and independent mortgage firms, and was responsible for about half of the bank’s $115 billion in mortgages last year. Two great quotes about this:

“There remain key areas that fall short of our quality- control process. We ask you to review your processes and join us in this effort to collectively address these areas of concern.”  — Brad Brunts, a managing director at the bank’s CitiMortgage division.

And this from an analyst

“It is better to pull people off the line, and have a thorough re-education of what goes into a loan, so they can come back and do this the right way.”

Not a good sign when you have to re-train people processing mortgages on the most basic elements of how to do their jobs. Are these some of the folks being offered those guaranteed contracts?

This really takes the idea of not verifying income to a new level.

RealityFrame’s comment about the raises could really be applied to pretty much everything the bank touches: Anybody want to dispute that those banksters aren’t indeed the "best and the brightest"?

 Constantine von Hoffman is a veteran business journalist and social media consultant. He write the blog CollateralDamage, a satirical look at marketing and business.

Related posts:

  1. Citigroup and Merrill Keep Eating Losses
  2. Citi Home Equity Discontinues California Purchase Money 2nd Mortgages
  3. Your Tax Dollars Hard at Work

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41 Charged as Mortgage Fraud Hits Condos & Suburbs

June 24th, 2009 Comments off

Federal law enforcement officials recently announced charges have brought against 41 defendants in five separate cases in Chicago. The cases involve more than $48 million in fraudulently obtained mortgages for dilapidated homes in urban areas as well as deals involving million dollar condominiums in a Chicago high-rise and sprawling homes in affluent suburbs like Wheaton and Glenview. The vice president of a title company, mortgage brokers, loan officers, appraisers, real estate investors and an attorney are among the 37 defendants charged.

“Mortgage fraud is a serious issue that affects not just financial institutions but ordinary citizens who may have invested in such financial institutions or who hope to purchase, sell or refinance a home by honestly setting forth their finances. Today’s charges also show that the mortgage fraud issue affects suburbs as well as cities,” said Patrick J. Fitzgerald, United States Attorney for the Northern District of Illinois, who announced the charges along with Robert D. Grant, Special Agent-in-Charge of the Chicago Division of the FBI and Barry McLaughlin, Special Agent-in-Charge of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Office of Inspector General in Chicago.

Among the cases are:

  • U.S. v. Lisnek, et al. is one of the most comprehensive mortgage fraud schemes ever charged in Chicago. The 22-count indictment names 19 defendants, including LaSalle Title Company and three other businesses, who allegedly schemed to fraudulently obtain loans totaling more than $10 million on 70 residential properties in Chicago, including many blighted homes on the city’s South Side between 2002 and 2007. The resulting losses by various mortgage lenders totaled approximately $5.8 million.
  • The 23-count indictment returned in U.S. v Askar, et al. names 10 defendants accused of scheming to fraudulently obtain loans totaling more than $17.2 million on various multi-million-dollar condominiums and penthouses at 33 West Ontario St., also known as Millenium Centre. Between July 2004 and December 2006 the co-defendents are alleged to have fraudulently obtaining more than $17.2 million in loans to purchase nine Millenium Centre units.
  • Six defendants accused of fraud and using stolen or fictitious identities to fraudulently obtain approximately $3 million in home loans from various lenders by submitting false applications for loans in U.S. v. Okulaja, et al.
  • In another $3 million mortgage fraud scheme,  the nine-count indictment in U.S. v. Beck, et al. alleges six defendants were purported to be in the business of buying, repairing and reselling real estate.
  • U.S. v. Luckett charges the chief executive of a Burr Ridge mortgage lender who allegedly defrauded GMAC Bank out of approximately $15 million in funding more than 450 fictitious residential loans.

All the charges filed in these cases are felonies. They carry a variety of maximum penalties including 30 years in prison and a $1 million fine on each count of mail and wire fraud affecting a financial institution or 20 years in prison and a $250,000 fine if no financial institution was affected. Alternatively, the court may impose a maximum fine totaling twice the gain to any defendant or twice the loss to any victim, whichever is greater. If convicted, the four business entities charged each face a maximum penalty of five years probation and a $500,000 fine.

“People who would want to commit this crime should understand there’s a lot of attention being focused on it, and we’d like to think that we have our ears up,” Fitzgerald told the Chicago Tribune.

Related posts:

  1. Seven charged in Indianapolis mortgage fraud scheme
  2. Four face charges in million dollar mortgage fraud
  3. The ups and downs of mortgage fraud

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No “green shoots” in employment

June 21st, 2009 Comments off

unemployment

Unemployment rose in nearly every state in the nation in May, with many reaching record unemployment levels not seen since 1976. So much for green shoots. If 70% of our economy is driven by consumer spending, and more and more consumers are out of work, how exactly are we coming out of this mess? Where is the driver going to come from? Even with the government doing everything it can to keep the printing presses pumping out money there isn’t a viable way to easily replace that massive consumer spending. I’m no economist, but the common sense in me says that an umemployed consumer doesn’t spend like one with a job and a house-sized ATM.

The top hardest hit states in terms of unemployment are: Michigan, Oregon, South Carolina, Rhode Island and California. (Image courtesy of CNN.com)

When you’ve got the nation’s most populous state in the top 5 in unemployment, a budget deficit of $20+ billion and new taxes going in left and right (not to mention a whole slew of Option ARM resets coming down the pike) it’s rather silly to be talking of recovery at this stage in the game.

What do you think?

Some more images of doom from CNN:

foreclosures

budget deficit

unemployment