The latest federal report on loan modifications shows that loan modifications carried out from January to April 2009 had a re-default rate of 51.5%. Re-default is defined by the report as any modified mortgage that has pending payment that is 30 days or more late. The same report highlights that re-default rates of modified loans in the last 12 months is 57.9%. This means that loan modifications are a) not doing what they are meant to; help people keep up with their monthly mortgage payments. And b) are getting worse at it.
Homeowners that have qualified for loan modifications are still struggling to make payments for a variety of reasons. Some have since lost their jobs, or their income has been reduced. Others simply do not see the sense in continuing to pay for a mortgage that is completely underwater. There are a lot people in that last category; around 24% of all homes with a mortgage on them were underwater in the last quarter of the 2009. The median price of a house in the United States has dropped by 28% since July 2006. It does not take a degree in Economics to see that loan modifications are just not working.
The question is why bother spending money on loan modifications that do not help homeowners keep their homes? A growing number of analysts are saying there is simply no rational reason to rewrite all these underwater loans. The number of homes facing a foreclosure is huge. The last quarter of 2009 had 2.39 million borrowers that were 60 days late on their mortgage payments, which is nearly a 50% rise from the previous year.
The pressure is on for the Obama administration to provide real solutions to the oncoming wave of foreclosures. Projections expect over 4.5 million foreclosure filings just this year. Some critics say the government’s current loan modification program is a disservice to the public, because it has extended the problem over years by helping homeowners, but not enough to make a real difference.
Of the 594,000 loan modifications that have started the application process from September to December process only 21,000 have received a permanent modification. In the entire lifetime of the HAMP program only 168,708 have received a loan modification, according to the Treasury’s own analysis.
Not surprisingly, owners whose mortgage monthly payments were reduced the most had the least chances of re-defaulting on their homes. The magic number of loan modifications seems to be 20%. When a loan modification reduces monthly payments by over 20% re-default rates dropped considerably.
One of the big issues that feed on this scenario is that many homeowners are underwater on their homes and are not interested in keeping their homes. They prefer to simply let them go back to the mortgage owner. Treasury has responded to this issue by creating HAFA, a mortgage aid for designed to get people to short sale their home. HAFA helps to fast track the short sale process by paying servicers, junior lien holders and borrowers to complete a short sale.
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The sad truth is that most troubled homeowners do not qualify for a trial loan modification. Of these, only a small percentage will receive a permanent modification. Analysts estimate that over 5 million households have underwater mortgages and are struggling with their payments. This represents nearly 20% of all American households. Many of these homeowners are going to lose their houses. The question is how soon can borrowers that foreclose on their homes buy a new home. The answer depends on the type of foreclosure and the extenuating circumstances of your particular case.
Who decides how soon you can get a new home loan?
The answer is the lender and their insurer. Although there is not one central body that sets fixed rules on this issue, there are clear guidelines set by Fannie Mae. Fannie Mae is America’s largest mortgage buyer. You might not even know that Fannie owns your mortgage because “she” does this on the secondary mortgage market. Because this corporation buys such a large percentage of mortgages, lenders will often follow in line with its guidelines.
What are the guidelines?
They can be found in Fannie Mae’s website and documentation. Below I detail the current guidelines, but these can change quite regularly so I encourage you to see them as a ballpark figure and then check for yourself.
How long you must wait after a foreclosure?
The quick answer is 5 to 7 years. However if there are extenuating circumstances the waiting period can be reduced from 3 to 7 years.
What about when you carry out a Deed-in-Lieu of Foreclosure?
It is actually worse; you should expect to wait between 4 to 7 years. However, if there are extenuating circumstances this might be a good option for troubled borrowers that want to buy a new home quickly, as the waiting time is reduced from 2 to 7 years.
What about short sales?
The current waiting period is two years. However, and this is an important point, if you are current on your monthly payments you can purchase a new home immediately. This is a powerful reason to stay up-to-date with your payments if you possibly can.
What are extenuating circumstances?
This refers to the reasons (or excuses) you provide to explain why you cannot pay your mortgage. There are many extenuating circumstances but your bank is only going to accept those you can prove, with documentation, are beyond your control and fall within their list of acceptable extenuating circumstances.
Fannie May will consider death (of a close relative, or partner), illness, job transfer, serious injuries from an accident, and other mitigating factors that dramatically affect your ability to pay your loan and are outside of your control. Unfortunately not being able to afford your payments because the interest rate on your variable interest loan has increased is not considered a mitigating circumstance.
These guidelines can help you make better decisions when trying to find the best choice when foreclosing on your home. Make sure you can prove the financial hardship you are going through and try to work with your lender with an option that will give the best chances of getting a clean start as soon as possible.
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Recent projections estimate that by June, over 5 million homeowners will be heavily underwater. Let us define that a little more precisely. You are heavily underwater if the current market value of your home is only 75% of the balance on your mortgage. Between you and me, this means you are pretty screwed. The scary part is that if this projection proves true 10% of all US homeowners will be in this pickle; not the place you want an economy to be if you are trying to dig yourself out of a recession.
This is why the Obama Administration is running about like headless chickens trying to find solutions to this problem, quick, mid-term, and long term solutions; any kind of solution that will get us out of this.
It was this kind of panic that caused the government to put all their weight behind HAMP, the government’s loan modification program. Loan modifications were and always have been procedures designed to help homeowners stuck with sub-premium loans. Sub-premium loans as you all know is a kind way of talking of usury, loans with interest rates so high they give you vertigo if just to think about them. However loan modifications are not, and never have been a fix for homeowners with great loans that are unemployed and cannot afford their mortgage.
What alternative solutions are there?
One proposal is to buy time by simply banning foreclosures until other options have been looked into by the homeowner and lender. You have to love that proposal, if you cannot stop homes foreclosing by economics just make it illegal. As crazy as this measure seems it is designed to buy time and allow homeowners to find ways of keeping their home. This would take the current guideline of asking lenders to evaluate defaulting homeowners for a loan modification to the next level by making it compulsory.
The Mortgage Bankers Association says its members are already following this principle, and that foreclosure is always a last resort when all other options have been exhausted.
Another plan sponsored by the Mortgage Bankers Association is to not modify permanently the loans of troubled homeowners that have lost their jobs but simply to reduce their mortgage payments substantially for up to nine months to give homeowners a chance of looking for a new job.
As you probably guessed the Banker’s Association is requesting Treasury to pay for the program. Nevertheless, it does seem like a good idea to provide a homeowners with a break until he finds a new job than taking forever to marginally reduce the mortgage payments of an unemployed borrower.
However, many are analysts are saying that the real strategy to follow is to find a way to improve the economy. A strong job market would pull out the housing market from the fix it is in. On this theme, there were some good news last week. The number of homeowners starting to default unexpectedly dropped in the fourth quarter of 2009. However, the government also reported that home prices dropped by 1.6% in December; making it clear that the economy still has a long way to go before it gets a clean bill of health.
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Few subjects have created as much debate as the issue of walking away from of your home when there does not seem to be any financial sense in staying. Walking away from your home when it is worth less than the balance on your mortgage seems like the sensible thing to do for many. Research shows that when homes drop in value by over 25% owners start to think seriously about letting their homes go.
Many ask themselves, “why not let the home go in default and rent a better place for less?
It is worth noting that we are talking about people who can afford their mortgages but simply decide to let their home go as a financial strategic calculation. The difference between truly troubled homeowners that would like to keep their homes and those that are defaulting on a mortgage to save money can be separated by a very thin line. But the evidence points to a growing number of borrowers that simply do not want to live under what many are calling “house arrest”.
Some experts are pointing out that around 17% of those that defaulted in 2008, over half a million homeowners, did so because of a strategic calculation and not due to a lack of income to pay the loan.
It does seem like we are at the turning point in society’s psyche, a kind of revolution. People are not as attached to their property. Mortgage brokers are advising many to walk way, and a lot of them are listening. Something that has become common again is for homeowners to simply mail their house keys to the lender as a way of setting off a foreclosure, what is also called jingle mail.
There is nothing new to this reaction; previous recessions and crisis were also characterized by homeowners walking away from their homes. However what is different is the scale of the number of foreclosures. Four years ago, a handful of people had negative equity on their mortgage, now there are over 4.5 million homeowners whose house is worth less than 75% of the balance of their mortgage. The Real Estate is not doing any favors to the economy and is stalling again; causing experts to estimate that by June the number will climb to 5.1 million in June. That is simply a huge figure, it will mean that 1 out of every 10 homes in the United States will be going through a foreclosure.
Still many believe that this so called jingle mail revolution is the product of the media’s imagination. Something that is talked about but not actually carried out. The figures seem to say otherwise, but it is true that people generally do not want to move. They do not enjoying moving neighborhood, or their children’s school, which is what keeps so many underwater homeowners in their homes.
The eternal question is what the government should do about the whole matter. According to one estimate it would cost around $745 billion to bail out all underwater borrowers in the US. This is a little more than what it cost to bail out the banks in 2008. Most of us think it would be silly and wrong to bail out every troubled homeowner, but if the government does nothing it could cause even more homeowners to walk away, further crippling an already fragile economy.
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It is hard to believe that three years have gone by since the housing market took a dive drowning with it millions of American homeowners. So what is the situation now? Have we hit rock bottom? Are the Administration’s measures starting to work?
Let us start with the good news. There are now over one million homeowners benefiting from temporary or final loan modifications. Admittedly, most of them are still in the trial period, but nevertheless, the Administration has made an effort to ‘encourage’ lenders and servicers to make an effort, sometimes by using a carrot and other times by brandishing a big stick. Another good newsbyte is that the rate of troubled homeowners, people behind on their payments, is dropping.
Also, new measures are being carried out as we speak. Just a few days ago Obama announced another program to avoid foreclosures. The program included offering $1.5 billion to housing agencies in California and four other states. These states have been especially hit by a fall in house prices making loan modifications harder to qualify for. This new program aims to provide these hard hit states with extra flexibility that will allow them to provide the help troubled homeowners need.
Unfortunately the good news is over. The bad news is that nearly 3 million homes are going through foreclosure and 4.5 million will do so this year according to conservative estimates. Another problem is that the figures we have may not even be telling the full story. Experts say that lenders have an estimate of 1.7 to 7 million homes in a shadow list of foreclosed home they are yet to put for sale. This fudges our foreclosure figures.
High foreclosure rates do not only affect the owners, it also lowers the price of homes in the neighborhood and cripples the economy as a whole. The question many are asking and we have discussed widely in this blog is how much should the government help. It is a fact that many borrowers overstretched their budgets to breaking point; these cannot and should not be bailed out. However, the fact remains that loan modification trial and completed number should be higher.
Another problem is the high re-default rates. These rates show some of the inadequacies of the current loan modification system. Studies show that re-defaulting rates are lower when the principal balance of the loan is trimmed or reduced. Unfortunately most loan modifications simply extend the term of the loan or reduce the interest rate.
What can the government do? Extra incentives for lenders and servicers might just make them weight for the next best deal, instead of focusing on providing fast loan modifications now. An idea that has been thrown around that seems promising is to give bankruptcy judges the power to write down mortgages like they can write down other kinds of debt. It is very likely that this would increase the interest rates of new loans to reflect the increased risk of loan balance reduction. However, it would provide a good incentive for lenders to negotiate reasonable loan modifications before a judge tells them to.
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Obama’s loan modification program can be seen as a failure, if you focus on the millions upon millions that are benefiting, or as a modest success with over 650,000 borrowers on trials and 375,000 on the fast track to getting permanent modifications by January 2010.
As reported earlier the government is in the process of sending special task forces to win over, bully or cajole, depending on your point of view, the big lenders that decide how well the loan modification program goes.
The big question is why are loan modifications not working better with all the money, over $75 billion, being thrown at it. This article will look at some of the main problems that are creating the loan modification minefield borrowers are currently suffering.
Problem 1. Lack of information
Government firms like Freddie and Fannie are contracting the services of outside companies to go house to house providing accurate information on how to go about getting a loan modification.
This is a reply to lenders complaining that the main reason loan modifications are slow is that borrowers are really bad at filling in forms and providing the information required. Of course, the media is littered with counterexamples of model borrowers that provided all the information and battled with the conflicting instructions that lenders requested.
Problem 2. There is a lot of people that need Loan Modifications.
Around 7.5 million households in the U.S alone are delinquent on their mortgage payments. 25 percent of all borrowers are underwater in their mortgage, owning a home that is worth less than what the mortgage is worth.
Those figures are huge, to deal just with the paperwork, information and mechanics of dealing with so many people on a subject that so few of us understand is a big job that even if all the players wanted Loan Modifications to work it would be hard to do faster.
Problem 3. Banks are nearly as lost as the rest of us.
The simple truth is that even when lenders want to modify a loan it is not a smooth road because they are not used to dealing with this volume of modifications. Banks are already understaffed due to the recession and their mitigation departments are in no better shape. Add to this under-information about government programs, lost paperwork, changing fax and telephone numbers and you start to see why it is so difficult to process a loan modification.
Problem 4.The NPV test
The NPV test stands for Net present value. This test compares the money a loan is likely to generate if it is modified (and the borrower keeps the house and pays the mortgage at the modified rate) and what it is likely to generate if the modification is not carried out. The logic behind this test is not bad. Making loan modifications a profitable exercise for banks is good news, if you make it profitable your chances of making it happen grow exponentially.
However the actual formula to calculate the Net present value is according to many commentators unrealistic and allows lenders to shelve loans they should modify.
Problem 4. Banks often benefit from delinquency.
Banks often are not the actual lenders behind a loan but take on the job of loan servicers. Loan servicers collect payments and deal with borrowers but don’t own the mortgage. Loan servicers profit from delinquent borrowers and the late fees and higher interest rates they generate.
Many go as far as saying the loan modification trials are simply a trap loan servicers use to get three more monthly payments from borrowers that are beyond help and would not pay otherwise.
The problems that borrowers face when trying to work out their loan modification are pretty scary, our next post will deal on how we can face these problems and increase our chances of loan modification success.
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