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With home sales plunging to their lowest level in 15 years, economists warn that a double-dip in housing prices is just around the corner, threatening to further slow the overall recovery.

After three years of slumping house prices, the end of the real estate bust may finally be in sight. Home sales are rising, inventories are shrinking, and most economists believe values nationwide will hit bottom in the second half of the year -- but not before falling another 5% to 10% first.

Personal incomes and spending fell in September, even as a rise in the gross domestic product has economists declaring that the recession has ended.

Last Thursday the big news was Obama’s Loan Modification program, Making Home Affordable. The first target the program set out for itself, reaching 500,000 trial loan modifications by November was reached nearly a month early.

Critics stated that the target was of little importance in the big picture of things with foreclosures continuing to affect more and more homeowners. Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s Economy.com said the help provided by HAMP was a help on the margin. “But it is not going to end the foreclosure crisis”.
So what should we think of Obama’s HAMP? Is it a success or failure story?

The Good.
Reaching the target was no mean feat. The first months were painfully slow in reaping loan modifications and many did not think even this first target would be met. The fact that it was is proof of Obama’s administration skill at cajoling and bullying banks and providers into meeting their expectations.

Whatever we think of the “Big Picture” 500,000 families have lower monthly mortgage payments, that has to be good news, right?
According to Timothy F. Geithner mortgage payments are now being lowered faster than homes are being sold in foreclosure proceedings and 40 percent of eligible homeowners (1.2 million of them) have been helped. Here the figures vary, other put this figure at 16% of eligible homeowners, but that just represents differences on the definition of what an eligible homeowner it.

The Bad.
Economists say the program and its current success will not be enough to prevent many millions from losing their homes before the Great Recession ends.
By Mr. Zandi’s calculations from this year to the next over 4 million households will go through foreclosure or short sales.

The 500,000 loan modifications are only trial loan modifications. If the homeowners fail to pay one of the first 3 months in the trial, the modification is void. Even if the homeowner completes the trial period they then have to supply more paperwork which opens the doors for loans not being modified due to bureaucratic slips.

We don’t know how many of the loan modifications actually modified the principal balance of the loan and how many simply lengthened the loan or reduced the interest rate to reduce mortgage payments. Reducing the principle is an important factor if you want to reduce the rates of re-default on mortgage payments.

The problem HAMP was designed to attack, subprime mortgages that cannot benefit from current low interest rates because the value of the home has dropped is no longer the main type of mortgage going through foreclosure. It is not only subprime mortgage that are suffering now. Prime mortgages with 30 year fixed interest at low interest rates are also defaulting because of the increase in unemployment. Loan modifications cannot help much on good mortgages with owners that cannot afford any payment because they are out of work.

So whatever your view is, this issue is still far from being solved and playing with loans is just not going to fix it. The question is do you try to use tax dollars to bail people out of the mess or just let the economy weed itself out of bad loans?

Related posts:

1. Loan Modification Success Report, The Truth Is Far Worse
2. U.S Loan Modifications Hit Obama’s target Early But Nobody’s Impressed
3. Loan Delinquencies Fall As Banks Get Serious With Loan Modifications

Related posts:

1. Loan Modification Success Report, The Truth Is Far Worse
2. U.S Loan Modifications Hit Obama’s target Early But Nobody’s Impressed
3. Loan Delinquencies Fall As Banks Get Serious With Loan Modifications

Sales of existing homes rose in July for the fourth consecutive month, lending support to economists who argue a recovery is near.

The federal debt has already surpassed $10 trillion, and current estimates indicate that this fiscal year's budget deficit could exceed $1 trillion. Strangely enough, even conservative-minded economists aren't balking at the spending, even though it's likely to lead to more government borrowing.

The federal debt has already surpassed $10 trillion, and current estimates indicate that this fiscal year's budget deficit could exceed $1 trillion. Strangely enough, even conservative-minded economists aren't balking at the spending, even though it's likely to lead to more government borrowing.

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