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Mortgage Requests Continue To Drop Despite Mortage Relief

July 9th, 2009 No comments


Mortgage Requests Continue To Drop Despite Mortage Relief

 
The efforts of Governments worldwide to rescue the credit and Housing industry from the pit they have dug for themselves are truly amazing. Banks have been bailed out, loans are  guaranteed, interest rates are kept low, mortgage refinancing relief programs are set up. However despite the best efforts the market is yet to find a bottom it can bounce back from. One of the indicators that give no reason for immediate relief to the crisis is the fall in mortgage requests since Feb.

This drop is, as we mentioned, despite the great efforts from the Obama administration to turn around the housing market. This article will have a look at some of the indexes that provide us with snapshots of the housing market economy and try to decipher what they tells us about how things will be in the short and middle term.

The MortgageBankers Association Index
One of the indexes that housing market analysts keep a close eye on is the Mortgage Bankers Association index of applications, this index dropped a further 19 percent down to 444.8 by June 26, a drop of more than a hundred points from the previous week. The refinancing gauge of the Mortgage Bankers Association fared even worse with a 30% drop to the lowest level in 7 months.

Unemployment levels
Unemployment has hit a record high that has not been experienced since 1983. Unemployment and the fear of unemployment has further slowed down the effects of revival packages from the government as buyers are scared to commit to further spending when they feel their source of income is in danger. This is accentuated by the fact that prices don’t seem to have stop dropping making it a rather difficult market for buyers to assess if they are getting a good deal or not on the property they want to purchase.

Mortgage rates
One of the measures governments, United States included, have carried out to massage the housing and credit industries back into action is to keep interest rates low as an incentive for buyers and investors to borrow cash. This had substantial results, especially in countries like Australia where the crises did not hit quite so hard causing an actual shortage in cash to lend, causing banks to search for money to feed demand. In the United States low interest rates has encouraged and allowed some to refinance their how to either save it or reap substantial savings when refinancing at a lower interest rate.

The drop in interest rates reached record lows of 4.25% for 30 year fixed interest loans creating a window of opportunity for large savings. However interest rates are now rising which seems like a rather bad move when the market seems to not have reached rock bottom yet.
An interesting index that also puts a somber shadow on the current housing market is the percentage of people who are planning to buy a house in the short term. A recent poll indicated that only 2.7% (a slight drop from 2.8%) are planning to buy a house soon.

Foreclosures
All of this occurs with a very large and sharp Damocles hanging over our heads, foreclosures. Some analysts predict 7 million foreclosures this year and next, 4.5 million of them as distress foreclosures. If the government can’t turn around the current trend these foreclosures would drag the prices of homes further which by itself would be enough to nullify any measures the government tries to carry out.

Related posts:

  1. Tax Relief for Mortgage Debt Forgiveness
  2. Mortgage loan applications & rates increase
  3. Loan Modification Efforts Continue Expansion

Related posts:
  1. Tax Relief for Mortgage Debt Forgiveness
  2. Mortgage loan applications & rates increase
  3. Loan Modification Efforts Continue Expansion

Recovery? Mortgage apps down, prime delinquencies up

July 1st, 2009 Comments off


Today is the day the recovery starts, at least according to those peering into the rosiest-colored crystal balls. The Wall Street Journal dug up these great examples:

Most forecasters seem to expect growth to be weak for a few quarters, but then rebound back to trend in the second half of 2008… –Lehman Brothers research note, Dec. 12, 2007

What is shaping up as the deepest and longest recession since the 1930s will end in the second half of 2009. –Wells Fargo press release, Dec. 19, 2008

And what news did we wake to on this glorious July 1?

First, mortgage application dropped 30% last week. The report from the Mortgage Bankers Association says this is a the lowest the rate has been at in seven months. Biggest reasons for this are people’s concerns about their jobs and mortgage rates. Currently the 30-year fixed is averaging 5.34%.

Second, delinquency rates for the LEAST RISKY MORTGAGES more that doubled in the first quarter compared to the same period in ‘08.

Prime mortgages 60 days or more past due climbed to 2.9 percent of such loans through March 31 from 1.1 percent at the same point in 2008, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision said today in a report. First-time foreclosure filings on the loans rose 22 percent from the fourth quarter, the report said.                                                                

(Hat tip to Implode/Explode)

These are just the latest evidence of the new wave of foreclosures. A month ago Mark Hanson of the Field Check Group wrote that the price-collapse we have been seeing in low- to mid-priced homes is now spreading to the mid- to high-priced sectors.

Mid-to-high end [Notice of Disclosure] and foreclosure counts stand between 35% and 40% of total counts but account for only about 20% of total sales. This means that foreclosure-related pipeline supply is 100% greater than demand in this segment. This is a major supply/demand imbalance that will bring serious trouble to this market over the near-term. Especially considering that this particular foreclosure related supply only makes up approx 10% of total mid-to-high end supply with Ma and Pay Organic homeowner once again making up the rest.

(Hat tip to the Financial Armageddon blog.)

Given Mr. Hanson’s impressive track record I am inclined to believe his predictions and wonder why Lehman Bros., Wells Fargo, et al., can’t do as well. Probably has something to do with his lack of a vested interest.

So the much vaunted recovery continues to recede farther into the distance. Surprise, surprise, surprise.

Constantine von Hoffman is a veteran business journalist and social media consultant. He write the blog CollateralDamage, a satirical look at marketing and business.

 

Related posts:

  1. Long-term unemployment woes increasing rate prime mortgage foreclosures
  2. Surprise, Surprise Alt-A and Subprime Delinquencies are…UP
  3. Bernanke Cautiously Optimistic For Recovery

Related posts:
  1. Long-term unemployment woes increasing rate prime mortgage foreclosures
  2. Surprise, Surprise Alt-A and Subprime Delinquencies are…UP
  3. Bernanke Cautiously Optimistic For Recovery